Athletic Club vs Villarreal – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.14x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 54/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.05
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.71
1.08
Villarreal xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
20.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.08 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.