Athletic Club 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Athletic Club at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Valencia travel to San Mamés Barria to take on Athletic Club. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 August 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Athletic Club have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Valencia — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Athletic Club are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Athletic Club, 1 for Valencia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Valencia trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 42% versus Valencia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 42% | Valencia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.70 xG and Valencia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.050 / defence 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.976 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.083. Data: 40 Athletic Club games / 40 Valencia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 53% | Draw 27% | Valencia 21%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Valencia 4.76. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Athletic Club 60% | Valencia 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 53% | Draw 27% | Valencia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Athletic Club 1.70 / Valencia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.050 / def 0.944 | Valencia attack 0.976 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Valencia xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Valencia kick off?
Athletic Club vs Valencia kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Athletic Club 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Athletic Club vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Valencia part of?
Athletic Club vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 53% chance of winning, Valencia a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Athletic Club and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valencia?
Record (6 meetings): Athletic Club 2W | Draws 3 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Valencia in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 1.05x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.73
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.70
1.00
Valencia xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
26.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.00 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Athletic Club come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 12D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Athletic Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.23 PPG from 40 outings (13W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Athletic Club carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Valencia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Athletic Club's home form reads 12W 7D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Athletic Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.05 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Valencia in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Valencia have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Valencia away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.15 PPG; Valencia away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Valencia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valencia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
3
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Valencia?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 50%, Valencia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Athletic Club) and 50% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Valencia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Athletic Club's recent games and 50% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Valencia tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valencia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Valencia 1-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.70 xG and Valencia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 53% | Draw 27% | Valencia 21%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 42%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valencia's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.