Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Athletic Club welcome Real Sociedad to San Mamés. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Athletic Club have posted 5W 1D 4L at San Mamés — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés than their overall form suggests.
Real Sociedad — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Sociedad's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Athletic Club, 3 for Real Sociedad and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Real Sociedad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Real Sociedad trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 48% versus Real Sociedad 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 39% | Real Sociedad 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.10 xG and Real Sociedad 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.805 / defence 1.039 | Real Sociedad attack 1.034 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.112. Data: 59 Athletic Club games / 59 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 32% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 37%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Real Sociedad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Athletic Club 40% | Real Sociedad 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: San Mamés • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 32% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Athletic Club 1.10 / Real Sociedad 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.805 / def 1.039 | Real Sociedad attack 1.034 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Real Sociedad xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at San Mamés.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club 1 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad part of?
Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 32% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Athletic Club and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad?
Record (9 meetings): Athletic Club 4W | Draws 2 | Real Sociedad 3W.
What form are Athletic Club and Real Sociedad in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 0.81x the league average against Real Sociedad's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
32%
3.13
31%
3.20
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.29
1.20
Real Sociedad xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.20 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Athletic Club's recent record stands at 26W 16D 17L from 59 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 26L across 59 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.59 PPG, Real Sociedad on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Athletic Club have managed 16W 7D 6L from 29 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 7W 8D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 26W 16D 17L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Real Sociedad away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.90 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2022, when Athletic Club won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
3
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 4, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 45%, Real Sociedad 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Athletic Club) and 41% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 41% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Athletic Club's recent games and 41% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés, Regular Season - 22, as Athletic Club and Real Sociedad drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.10 xG and Real Sociedad 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Real Sociedad attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 32% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 37%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 39%, Real Sociedad 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.59 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.