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Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Athletic Club welcome Real Sociedad to San Mamés. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Athletic Club have posted 5W 1D 4L at San Mamés — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés than their overall form suggests.

Real Sociedad — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Real Sociedad's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Athletic Club, 3 for Real Sociedad and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Real Sociedad winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Athletic Club trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Real Sociedad trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 48% versus Real Sociedad 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 39% | Real Sociedad 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.10 xG and Real Sociedad 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.805 / defence 1.039 | Real Sociedad attack 1.034 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.112. Data: 59 Athletic Club games / 59 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Athletic Club 32% | Draw 31% | Real Sociedad 37%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Real Sociedad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Athletic Club 40% | Real Sociedad 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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