Athletic Club vs Real Madrid – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (1.04) and Real Madrid's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.34x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.64
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.46
1.33
Real Madrid xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.33 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.