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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 2

Kick-off

Mon 25 Aug 2025

18:30

Venue

San Mamés

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Athletic Club Win

40%

Athletic Club

2.47

25%

Draw

4.02

35%

Rayo Vallecano

2.88

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.7%

Home win

1 – 0

8.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.50

Athletic Club xG

Total xG

2.87

1.37

Rayo Vallecano xG

40%
25%
35%
Athletic ClubDrawRayo Vallecano

2.47

40%

Home win

4.02

25%

Draw

2.88

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.73

42%

BTTS No

2.38

Clean Sheet

25%

Athletic Club

3.94

22%

Rayo Vallecano

4.48

Win to Nil

10%

Athletic Club

9.74

8%

Rayo Vallecano

12.93

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.7 7.8 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.2
1 8.5 11.6 8.0 3.6 1.3 0.3
2 6.4 8.7 6.0 2.7 0.9 0.3
3 3.2 4.4 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
4 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.500
λ Away (xG) 1.371
Total xG 2.871
League avg home goals 1.357
League avg away goals 1.230
Athletic Club attack strength 1.182
Athletic Club defence strength 0.991
Rayo Vallecano attack strength 1.125
Rayo Vallecano defence strength 0.935
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 39 / 39