Athletic Club vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Athletic Club and Levante meet at in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Athletic Club (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club at this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Levante have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Athletic Club against 1.00 for Levante. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Athletic Club, 1 for Levante and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2026, ended 1–3 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 50% versus Levante 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 46% | Levante 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.52 xG and Levante 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.886 / defence 0.872 | Levante attack 0.709 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.274. Data: 46 Athletic Club games / 47 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 53% | Draw 29% | Levante 18%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Levante 5.56. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Athletic Club 50% | Levante 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 53% | Draw 29% | Levante 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Athletic Club 1.52 / Levante 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.886 / def 0.872 | Levante attack 0.709 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Levante xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Levante kick off?
Athletic Club vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Levante part of?
Athletic Club vs Levante is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 53% chance of winning, Levante a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Athletic Club and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Levante?
Record (5 meetings): Athletic Club 3W | Draws 1 | Levante 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Levante in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (0.89) and Levante's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.71x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.43
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.31
0.79
Levante xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
4%
25.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.79 for Levante, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Athletic Club come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 9D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (13W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Athletic Club against 1.13 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Athletic Club's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.33 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Levante in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Levante have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Levante away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.52 PPG; Levante away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 21 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Levante?
From 5 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2026, when Levante 3-1 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Levante?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 52%, Levante 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Athletic Club) and 44% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club have failed to score in 26% of games; Levante in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 44% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Athletic Club's recent games and 44% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Levante tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Levante in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.