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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Levante.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Levante 4-2 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.15 xG and Levante 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levante outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Levante attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 36% | Draw 32% | Levante 31%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 38%, Levante 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Levante's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.05 PPG, Levante 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights