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Shock result as Getafe defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Athletic Club 0-1 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.51 xG and Getafe 0.99 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Getafe attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 49% | Draw 27% | Getafe 24%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 36%, Getafe 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Getafe's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights