Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Alaves travel to San Mamés Stadium to take on Athletic Club. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Athletic Club have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Athletic Club's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Athletic Club register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Alaves in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Athletic Club have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Alaves have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 4–2 with Athletic Club winning.
The historical record gives Athletic Club a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Alaves trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 51% versus Alaves 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 46% | Alaves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.55 xG and Alaves 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.990 / defence 0.935 | Alaves attack 0.926 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.273. Data: 43 Athletic Club games / 44 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 25% | Alaves 27%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Alaves 3.70. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Athletic Club dominate the H2H record, yet Alaves are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 60% | Alaves 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: San Mamés Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 25% | Alaves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Athletic Club 1.55 / Alaves 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.990 / def 0.935 | Alaves attack 0.926 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Alaves xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Alaves kick off?
Athletic Club vs Alaves kicked off at 14:15 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at San Mamés Stadium.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Athletic Club 0 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Athletic Club vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Stadium.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Alaves part of?
Athletic Club vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 48% chance of winning, Alaves a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Athletic Club and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
Record (8 meetings): Athletic Club 5W | Draws 2 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 0.99x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.95
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.65
1.10
Alaves xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
17.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.10 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Athletic Club come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 7D 21L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Athletic Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.16 PPG from 43 outings (13W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.21 PPG, Alaves on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Athletic Club's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.23 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 60%.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Alaves in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 15W 7D 21L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Alaves have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Alaves away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.48 PPG; Alaves away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Athletic Club's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Alaves?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 52%, Alaves 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Athletic Club) and 43% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 57% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Athletic Club's recent games and 43% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Athletic Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Athletic Club and Alaves drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.55 xG and Alaves 1.10 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Alaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Alaves attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 48% | Draw 25% | Alaves 27%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 46%, Alaves 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alaves's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.21 PPG, Alaves 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.