Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almeria face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almeria host Atletico Madrid at Power Horse Stadium in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almeria stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria's home record at Power Horse Stadium: 0W 6D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Atletico Madrid have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atletico Madrid — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almeria, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Atletico Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Almeria in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 65% versus Atletico Madrid 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 62% | Atletico Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 0.81 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.664 / defence 1.124 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.010 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.136. Almeria's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Almeria games / 63 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 20% | Draw 35% | Atletico Madrid 45%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Atletico Madrid 2.22. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 50% | Atletico Madrid 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 20% | Draw 35% | Atletico Madrid 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Almeria 0.81 / Atletico Madrid 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.664 / def 1.124 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.010 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Atletico Madrid xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Almeria vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Almeria 2 - 2 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Almeria vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Almeria vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 20% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Almeria and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Atletico Madrid?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Madrid 2W.
What form are Almeria and Atletico Madrid in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almeria's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
20%
4.90
35%
2.89
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.10
1.29
Atletico Madrid xG
4.90
20%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
6%
17.79
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Almeria and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Almeria and 1.29 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria come into this having played 63 games, going 11W 16D 36L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 2.03 PPG from 63 outings (39W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almeria's home form reads 10W 9D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.58 points per game from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 2.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.90 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 16D 36L in their last 63 games (0.78 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 39W 11D 13L in their last 63 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.26 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Almeria or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Almeria's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
2
Draws
2
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Atletico Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Atletico Madrid have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 58%, Atletico Madrid 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Almeria) and 39% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 39%; Almeria have failed to score in 32% of games; Atletico Madrid in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almeria's recent matches and 39% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Almeria's recent games and 39% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almeria and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria and Atletico Madrid finished level at 2-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 0.81 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.29 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.66 / defence 1.12 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.01 / defence 0.89, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 20% | Draw 35% | Atletico Madrid 45%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 62%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.