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Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.96 xG and Valencia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.59 / defence 0.81 against Valencia attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 33% | Draw 31% | Valencia 37%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 34%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Valencia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.11 PPG, Valencia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights