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Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Real Sociedad 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Real Sociedad 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.94 xG and Real Sociedad 1.14 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Real Sociedad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.63 / defence 0.92 against Real Sociedad attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 30% | Draw 30% | Real Sociedad 40%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 36%, Real Sociedad 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.10 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights