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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Alaves 1-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.10 xG and Real Madrid 1.27 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.84 against Real Madrid attack 1.37 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 32% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 40%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 36%, Real Madrid 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Real Madrid's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights