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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.81 xG and Real Madrid 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 0.94 against Real Madrid attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 37%, Real Madrid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights