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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Real Betis 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Real Betis 2-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.32 xG and Real Betis 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.82 / defence 0.93 against Real Betis attack 1.04 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 41% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 30%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Real Betis 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Real Betis's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights