Alaves 0-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Real Betis at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
Real Betis — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alaves at 1.40 PPG versus Real Betis's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Alaves have won 0, Real Betis 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Real Betis in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 38% versus Real Betis 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 31% | Real Betis 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.32 xG and Real Betis 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.006 / defence 0.921 | Real Betis attack 1.032 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.102. Data: 39 Alaves games / 39 Real Betis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alaves 42% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 29%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Real Betis 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 40% | Real Betis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 42% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Alaves 1.32 / Real Betis 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.006 / def 0.921 | Real Betis attack 1.032 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Alaves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Real Betis xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Betis kick off?
Alaves vs Real Betis kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Betis?
Alaves 0 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Alaves vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Betis part of?
Alaves vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 42% chance of winning, Real Betis a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alaves and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Betis?
Record (4 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 2 | Real Betis 2W.
What form are Alaves and Real Betis in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Real Betis (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (1.01) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.47
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.37
1.05
Real Betis xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Alaves and 1.05 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 10D 17L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis's form line: 14W 16D 9L from 39 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alaves on 1.18 PPG, Real Betis on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 5W 8D 6L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.26 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 39 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 14W 16D 9L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Betis away?
Alaves's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.63 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Real Betis in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Real Betis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2022, when Real Betis won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Betis?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Real Betis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 37%, Real Betis 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Alaves and 42% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Real Betis in 32%; Alaves have failed to score in 26% of games; Real Betis in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Alaves's recent matches and 58% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Alaves's recent games and 42% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Betis tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Real Betis finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.32 xG and Real Betis 1.05 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Real Betis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Real Betis attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 42% | Draw 29% | Real Betis 29%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 31%, Real Betis 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.18 PPG, Real Betis 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.