Alaves 2-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Alaves welcome Levante to Estadio Mendizorrotza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Alaves haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alaves, 1 for Levante and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Levante winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.30 xG and Levante 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.817 / defence 0.867 | Levante attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.235. Data: 38 Alaves games / 0 Levante games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 28% | Levante 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Levante 3.85. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 28% | Levante 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Alaves 1.30 / Levante 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.817 / def 0.867 | Levante attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Alaves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Levante xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Levante kick off?
Alaves vs Levante kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Levante?
Alaves 2 - 1 Levante.
Where is Alaves vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Levante part of?
Alaves vs Levante is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 45% chance of winning, Levante a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alaves and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Levante?
Record (2 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 0 | Levante 1W.
What form are Alaves and Levante in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.53
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.21
0.91
Levante xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Alaves and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Alaves and 0.91 for Levante, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Pre-Season
Levante
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alaves's record when hosting Levante specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Levante have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Levante 2-0 Alaves.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Levante 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Levante 2-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.30 xG and Levante 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.82 / defence 0.87 against Levante attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 45% | Draw 28% | Levante 26%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.