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Poisson model rates Alaves at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Alaves welcome Levante to Estadio Mendizorrotza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 20:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Alaves haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alaves, 1 for Levante and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Levante winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.30 xG and Levante 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.817 / defence 0.867 | Levante attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.235. Data: 38 Alaves games / 0 Levante games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 28% | Levante 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Levante 3.85. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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