Alaves 1-1 Leganes – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Alaves at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Leganes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Leganes travel to Estadio de Mendizorroza to take on Alaves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 15:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mendizorroza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.

Across all La Liga games this season, Leganes have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Leganes away from home this season: 0W 4D 3L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 0.60 PPG, Leganes 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Trading Patterns

Alaves in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Leganes in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Leganes 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 64% | Leganes 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.61 xG and Leganes 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.884 / defence 1.007 | Leganes attack 0.949 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.104. Leganes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Alaves games / 14 Leganes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Leganes 25%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Leganes 4.00. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 30% | Leganes 71%.

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