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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Espanyol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.09 xG and Espanyol 0.96 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Espanyol attack 0.89 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 38% | Draw 31% | Espanyol 31%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 35%, Espanyol 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Espanyol's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Espanyol 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights