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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Celta Vigo defy the odds to beat Alaves 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Celta Vigo beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.45 xG and Celta Vigo 1.29 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Celta Vigo attack 1.22 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 41% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 33%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 36%, Celta Vigo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.14 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights