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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 21, as Alaves and Celta Vigo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.48 xG and Celta Vigo 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 0.98 against Celta Vigo attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Celta Vigo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.14 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights