Alaves 3-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Celta Vigo's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Alaves, 2 for Celta Vigo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 38% versus Celta Vigo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 25% | Celta Vigo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.29 xG and Celta Vigo 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.783 / defence 0.939 | Celta Vigo attack 1.146 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.103. Alaves's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Celta Vigo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Alaves games / 70 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Celta Vigo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 40% | Celta Vigo 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Alaves 1.29 / Celta Vigo 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.783 / def 0.939 | Celta Vigo attack 1.146 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Alaves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Celta Vigo xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Alaves 3 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Alaves vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Celta Vigo part of?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 39% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alaves and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 2W.
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.78) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.15x) against Alaves's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
39%
2.60
28%
3.56
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.48
1.19
Celta Vigo xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Alaves and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Alaves and 1.19 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 9W 8D 15L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 15L across 32 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Alaves against 0.97 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 7W 3D 6L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 7W 10D 15L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Celta Vigo away?
Alaves's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.50 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
2
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 38%, Celta Vigo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 19% (Alaves) and 69% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Alaves's recent matches and 69% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Alaves's recent games and 69% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alaves run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Celta Vigo 3-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.29 xG and Celta Vigo 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Alaves beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Celta Vigo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.78 / defence 0.94 against Celta Vigo attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 39% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 33%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 25%, Celta Vigo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.09 PPG, Celta Vigo 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.