Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Seongnam FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 June 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Seongnam FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Seongnam FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1.60 for Seongnam FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W, Seongnam FC 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Seongnam FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Seongnam FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49 xG and Seongnam FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.189 / defence 1.042 | Seongnam FC attack 0.855 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.110. Data: 50 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 50 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Seongnam FC 4.00. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Seongnam FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49 / Seongnam FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.189 / def 1.042 | Seongnam FC attack 0.855 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Seongnam FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 49% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.19) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.85x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.84
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.48
0.99
Seongnam FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.99 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 11D 6L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 1.16 PPG from 38 outings (11W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 13W 5D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Seongnam FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Seongnam FC won 3-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
2
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 53% (Seongnam FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 53% of Seongnam FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.49 xG and Seongnam FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Seongnam FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.04 against Seongnam FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 25%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Seongnam FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.