Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 2W 7D 1L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.237 / defence 1.297 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.783 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.319. Data: 58 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 58 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.237 / def 1.297 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.783 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
33%
3.03
32%
3.15
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.34
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.34 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 22W 15D 26L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 22W 22D 19L from 63 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (12W 6D 13L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 11W 11D 9L from 31 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 22W 22D 19L in their last 63 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.35 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 52% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 64% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 52% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.30 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.