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Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.41 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights