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Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.32 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.33 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights