Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.30 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Jeonbuk Motors and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Jeonbuk Motors 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.972 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.941 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.131. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 34%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.071 / def 0.972 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.941 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Jeonbuk Motors xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 35% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.19
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.08
1.03
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.03 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 44W 17D 14L from 75 games, a 1.99 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 37W 19D 19L across 75 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.99 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 24W 8D 5L from 37 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 19W 7D 11L across 37 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.35 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 17D 14L in their last 75 games (1.99 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 19D 19L in their last 75 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
5
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 65%, Jeonbuk Motors 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 46% (Jeonbuk Motors). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jeonbuk Motors in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.03 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.94 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 34%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, Jeonbuk Motors 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.99 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.