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Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Jeju United FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 24%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Jeju United FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights