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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 xG and Jeju United FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.14 against Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Jeju United FC 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.66 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights