Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42 xG and Gwangju FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.293 / defence 0.957 | Gwangju FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.015. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.293 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 12 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Gwangju FC 4.55. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42 / Gwangju FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.293 / def 0.957 | Gwangju FC attack 0.904 / def 1.195 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Gwangju FC xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 49% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.90x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.44
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.88
Gwangju FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.88 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gwangju FC 2-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42 xG and Gwangju FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gwangju FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Gwangju FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 22%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.