Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Season Statistics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's full-season record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games. Their scoring output is 1.1 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-2 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-2 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 11 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 2 of 38 games (5%). Penalties this season: 4 scored / 0 missed from 4 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's cumulative K League 1 record this campaign: 18W 7D 13L from 38 matches. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.2 conceded on average. Biggest win: 6-2 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 10 games this season. 12 clean sheets this season (8 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 10 of 38 games (26%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 4-4-2. Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have been the more prolific side this season at 1.60 goals per game compared to 1.10 for the hosts. Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead on clean sheets this season (12 vs 11). Gimcheon Sangmu FC score 2+ goals far more often (26% vs 5%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Ulsan Hyundai FC 4/4 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3/3 this season.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.228 / defence 0.984 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.274. Data: 36 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 37 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Ulsan Hyundai FC dominate the H2H record, yet Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 05:00 UTC • Managers: Ulsan Hyundai FC (Shin Tae-Yong) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Seung-jin Joo) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W • Goals trend: 3.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 12 – 13 Gimcheon Sangmu FC • H2H markets: BTTS 62% | Over 2.5 75% | Win rates: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% / Draw 25% / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Ulsan Hyundai FC favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.12 goals/game (75% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.76 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 62%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L • Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L • Ulsan Hyundai FC home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Gimcheon Sangmu FC away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Ulsan Hyundai FC): Poisson projects 1.53 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Gimcheon Sangmu FC): Poisson projects 1.23 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~2.0 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.76 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC on PPG but Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC higher (41% vs 27% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.228 / def 0.984 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.983 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 41% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
• Record (8 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W • Goals trend: 3.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 12 – 13 Gimcheon Sangmu FC • H2H markets: BTTS 62% | Over 2.5 75% | Win rates: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% / Draw 25% / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson: both agree — Ulsan Hyundai FC favoured. H2H win rate 50%, Poisson win probability 41% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.12 goals/game (75% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.76 (52% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 62%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
• Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L • Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L • Ulsan Hyundai FC home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | CS 4 • Gimcheon Sangmu FC away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead by 0.50 PPG (1.50 vs 1.00) • xG vs form (Ulsan Hyundai FC): Poisson projects 1.53 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Gimcheon Sangmu FC): Poisson projects 1.23 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.60 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals contradiction — form projects only ~2.0 goals/game (Under signal) but Poisson xG sum is 2.76 (52% Over probability) — underlying attack/defence strengths differ from surface-level results • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~60% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC on PPG but Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC higher (41% vs 27% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture