Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 05:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gangwon FC — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.40 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, Gangwon FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2025, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–2 Gangwon FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 xG and Gangwon FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.962 / defence 0.976 | Gangwon FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.223. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 33 games and Gangwon FC's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.39 | Draw 3.56 | Gangwon FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 home games and Gangwon FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ulsan Hyundai FC 33 games, Gangwon FC 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 / Gangwon FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.962 / def 0.976 | Gangwon FC attack 0.960 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gangwon FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 33 games and Gangwon FC's last 33, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.56
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.15
Gangwon FC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.15 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.53 PPG from 76 outings (32W 20D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across their last 38 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 38 away games (14W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Gangwon FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 47% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 63% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 xG and Gangwon FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Gangwon FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 30%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.