Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ulsan Hyundai FC take on FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Seoul — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG, FC Seoul 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 1, FC Seoul 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–3 FC Seoul — a FC Seoul win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus FC Seoul 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | FC Seoul 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG and FC Seoul 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.906 | FC Seoul attack 1.138 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.041. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 39 games and FC Seoul's last 39.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 37% | FC Seoul 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.01 | Draw 2.74 | FC Seoul 3.31. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Seoul 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 37% | FC Seoul 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 / FC Seoul 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.050 / def 0.906 | FC Seoul attack 1.138 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Seoul xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 4 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 33% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.05) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 39 games and FC Seoul's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
37%
2.74
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.07
FC Seoul xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.07 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 20D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.41 PPG from 76 outings (28W 23D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 9L across their last 38 home games, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 38 away games (12W 14D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs FC Seoul (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.87 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 FC Seoul.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, FC Seoul have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: FC Seoul 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, FC Seoul 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 40% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Seoul in 37%; FC Seoul in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 53% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 40% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 50% of FC Seoul's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Seoul run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-4 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG and FC Seoul 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against FC Seoul attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 33% | Draw 37% | FC Seoul 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, FC Seoul 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, FC Seoul 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.