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Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.63 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.54 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.02 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.20 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights