Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Daegu FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.44 xG and Daegu FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.043 / defence 0.886 | Daegu FC attack 0.871 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.244. Data: 58 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 59 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 4.00. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Daegu FC 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.44 / Daegu FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.043 / def 0.886 | Daegu FC attack 0.871 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Daegu FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 4 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.87x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.66
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.40
0.96
Daegu FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.96 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 36W 18D 9L from 63 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 21D 22L across 63 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 21W 9D 2L from 32 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 12D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 36W 18D 9L in their last 63 games (2.00 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 20W 21D 22L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, Daegu FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%, Daegu FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 44% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Daegu FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 62% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 44% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 4-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.44 xG and Daegu FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.89 against Daegu FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 25%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.