Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 8W 1D 1L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 xG and Daegu FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.205 / defence 0.789 | Daegu FC attack 0.883 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.228. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 41 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Daegu FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Daegu FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 / Daegu FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.205 / def 0.789 | Daegu FC attack 0.883 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Daegu FC xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 56% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.88x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.89
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.51
0.86
Daegu FC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
4%
27.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.86 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 13L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 13W 5D 1L from 19 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, Daegu FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.65 xG and Daegu FC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.79 against Daegu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 19%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.