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Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 34, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.78 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Daegu FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.31, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 25% | Daegu FC 27%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Daegu FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Daegu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights