Suwon City FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 July 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.80 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Ulsan Hyundai FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Suwon City FC's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 55% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.44 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.955 / defence 0.907 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.102 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.144. Data: 53 Suwon City FC games / 53 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Suwon City FC 1.44 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.955 / def 0.907 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.102 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 5 July 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.83
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.14
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.14 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 19W 11D 28L from 58 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 12L across 58 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 11W 6D 12L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 14W 5D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.74 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 19W 11D 28L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 34W 12D 12L in their last 58 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.34 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Suwon City FC) and 55% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Suwon City FC's games and 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 21, as Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.44 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.91 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.