Suwon City FC 2-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC at Suwon Sports Complex this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Suwon Bluewings's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Suwon City FC) versus 1.50 (Suwon Bluewings). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Suwon City FC, 2 for Suwon Bluewings and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.065 / defence 1.127 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.968 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.263. Data: 35 Suwon City FC games / 35 Suwon Bluewings games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 38%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon Bluewings 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Suwon Bluewings 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Suwon City FC 1.34 / Suwon Bluewings 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.065 / def 1.127 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.968 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Suwon Bluewings xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 36% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon City FC 4W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.76
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.72
1.38
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.38 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 27W 18D 31L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 22W 22D 32L from 76 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.30 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 38 outings (18W 6D 14L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 9D 17L from 38 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 22W 22D 32L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Suwon City FC and 47% for Suwon Bluewings. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Suwon City FC's matches and 47% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.38 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 38%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.