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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.06 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 29% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 53%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.39 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights