Suwon City FC 2-4 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 08:30 UTC.

Form

Suwon City FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2024, ended 3–2 with Suwon City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 57% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.033 / defence 1.299 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.753 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.233. Data: 63 Suwon City FC games / 30 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.45. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%.

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