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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 7, as Suwon City FC and Pohang Steelers drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.35 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.42 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.30 / defence 1.30, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 25% | Pohang Steelers 39%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights