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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.06 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 33% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights