Suwon City FC 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 39%, yet in-form Suwon City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Suwon City FC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 67% and Jeju United FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 58% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.03 xG and Jeju United FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.105 / defence 1.303 | Jeju United FC attack 0.791 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 1.154. Data: 24 Suwon City FC games / 24 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Jeju United FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suwon City FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Suwon City FC 80% | Jeju United FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Suwon City FC 1.03 / Jeju United FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.105 / def 1.303 | Jeju United FC attack 0.791 / def 0.970 | league avg home 0.961 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Jeju United FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 31% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.10) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.36
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.19
Jeju United FC xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.19 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 13D 6L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.29 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 2W 7D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jeju United FC in 67%.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 5W 13D 6L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 73%, Jeju United FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Suwon City FC) and 36% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 54%; Jeju United FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Suwon City FC's games and 46% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 36% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.03 xG and Jeju United FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.30 against Jeju United FC attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 39%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 58%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.29 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.