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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Group - 34, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.79 xG and Jeju United FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Jeju United FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 50% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 25%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 55%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.28 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights