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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.72 xG and Jeju United FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.96 against Jeju United FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 59% | Draw 24% | Jeju United FC 18%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights