🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.49 xG and Gwangju FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.13 against Gwangju FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 29%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 53%, Gwangju FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.27 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights