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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Suwon City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Suwon City FC 2-4 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.35 xG and Gwangju FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Gwangju FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.09 against Gwangju FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 27% | Gwangju FC 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Gwangju FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.27 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights