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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.11 xG and Gwangju FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Gwangju FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 33% | Draw 31% | Gwangju FC 36%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 50%, Gwangju FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.19 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights