Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon World Cup Stadium to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Suwon World Cup Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Suwon City FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over Gangwon FC (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Gangwon FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 67% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Gangwon FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.45 xG and Gangwon FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.053 / defence 1.167 | Gangwon FC attack 0.775 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.160. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Suwon City FC games / 24 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Gangwon FC 3.70. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Gangwon FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Suwon City FC 1.45 / Gangwon FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.053 / def 1.167 | Gangwon FC attack 0.775 / def 1.384 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gangwon FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 46% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.78x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 27/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.61
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.05
Gangwon FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.05 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 10W 6D 8L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gangwon FC's form line: 6W 9D 9L from 24 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.12 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 games (1.50 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Suwon City FC, 73% for Gangwon FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Suwon City FC) and 46% (Gangwon FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Suwon City FC's games and 73% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 46% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.45 xG and Gangwon FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Gangwon FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.38, drawn from 27/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 27%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Gangwon FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.50 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.